Lidgeastrophe

What in the world got into Brad Lidge? It seems that after the Pujols home run in the 2005 playoffs he was never able to regain the dominance that he showed the majority of 2003, 2004, and 2005. I believe that after that home run, he lost confidence in his stuff and therefore confidence in his delivery so now he has trouble duplicating his delivery.

The problem was compounded in 2006 when Lidge changed his delivery several times. Formerly a starter, Lidge always employed a wind up with the bases empty like a starter would(most relievers pitch from the stretch regardless). Last year he went to starting from the stretch, then went back to a wind up, made some other changes, and pretty soon he had lost any reference point to his delivery. There were also grumblings around the league of Lidge tipping his pitches.

After Lidge's disastrous appearance Sunday, Astros manager Phil Garner has decided to go with Dan Wheeler as the closer at least until Lidge can right the ship. On Sunday in 2/3 of an inning, Lidge walked 2, gave up 3 hits of which two were for extra bases and 2 earned runs. This on the heels of giving up a game tying homer to Xavier Nady in the season opener.

What is frustrating is that Lidge still has good stuff. A good fastball, and his hard, biting slider. In the last 3 seasons Lidge's number are as follows:

As you can see, even last year he still maintained fantastic strike out rates which means he still has his good stuff. Two alarming stats however. The first one is that he is walking more batters dropping nearly two strikeouts per walk in 2006 than the 4.48 he averaged in 2005. Second, he doubled his home runs allowed which is problematic for a closer. 5 of 10 homers came with 2 outs already in the inning. What that says is that it seems as though Lidge gets lazy when he thinks the game is in the bag and leaves a pitch over the plate for a guy to mash. The walks point to his lack of a consistent delivery which is not allowing him to throw his slider as much because his slider isn't designed to get called strikes. It is a pitch designed for the swing and miss. And with his inability to put his fastball where he wants it, the batter can now sit on pitches a great deal easier. Because he is always behind in the count he isn't throwing his slider as much which makes him less effective because his slider was one of the best in the game. Last year was the first year that batters got on base at a +.300 clip and slugged at a +.400 clip. Time will tell if we have seen the last of Brad Lidge.

Now, the question is, is Dan Wheeler the guy to replace Lidge? Well, the last two seasons, Wheels has averaged over 8K/9 innings and only gave up 7 and 5 homers, respectively. Combine that with low walk totals and Wheeler looks to be an effective replacement for Lidge. The last three seasons, Wheels has only allowed the league to hit .238/.294/.384 off of him. The only cause for concern is that in the last three seasons lefties have hit .285/.350/.469 off of him. He also has a GB/FB ratio of .79 the last two seasons which is less than desirable.

The Astros have had success promoting closers from their bullpen. After Billy Wagner left, Octavio Dotel became the closer, and then after Dotel, Lidge became the closer. The Astros are hoping that Wheeler can do the job if Lidge is in fact done as a closer, at least in Houston.