Hope Springs Eternal (or at least until July)

Now is the time of year for unparalleled (and often unfounded) optimism. Fans anxiously check Spring Training box scores and stats in order to justify their outlook for this season (Willie Bloomquist is hitting .450!). Forgetting about these preseason games, since teams are more concerned with the process rather than the outcome (not to mention the fact that many players in camp will not grace big league parks until September call-ups, if at all), how long should these up-beat attitudes last?

To make the picture a bit clearer, we can look at the month-by-month standings within each division over the past five seasons. With the 6 divisions across both leagues, this will give us 30 samples for each month. Below are the percentages in which a team that has led at the end of each respective month went on to win the division:

Quick note: obviously, these numbers are averages and a team’s chances would need to be adjusted based on games behind, new acquisitions, injuries, etc.

April – 46.67%
May – 60%
June – 66.67%
July – 80%
August – 80%

Percentages progress as you would expect, although I do think it’s interesting that ~47% of division leaders in April were on top at the end of the year, considering that only about 25 of the total 162 games have been played at that point. The most significant jump comes somewhere in the month of July, where the month end winners have remained in first 80% of the time when October rolls around (100% in the NL). In fact, the only team during these past five years that has come back to win the division after trailing by more than 5 games at the end of July is Minnesota this past season (8.5 games).

Besides the obvious argument that these percentages get higher due to fewer games remaining to upset the order (after all, there are usually about 55 remaining, plenty of time to make up ground), this is more likely due to players (and teams) becoming what they really are.

Case in point? The Cincinnati Reds. Cincinnati began July last year dead even with the St. Louis Cardinals on top of the NL Central, and while they finished only 3.5 games back at year end (due mainly to a weak division), their numbers tell more of a story. Cincinnati scored 5 runs per game before the All Star break, but dropped to only 4.1 runs/game afterwards (their team SLG also plummeted from .451 pre All Star to .409 post). Although their ERA did improve by about .60, it wasn’t enough to overcome the decline in their offensive numbers. In addition to these types of declines, better teams getting off to a slow start will generally increase their performances to expected levels.

Basically, the Mark DeRosa’s of the world probably won’t maintain their first half numbers of .332/.384/.494 (he fell to .265/.333/.423 in the last half), just as Richie Sexon will improve from his .218/.288/.418 line (.322/.399/.613 in the second half).

So feel free to dream of what could be during the first few months of the season, because come July, it’ll be time to face reality.