NL Central Preview

Chicago Cubs

What to Like: Carlos Zambrano. Very few teams can actually say that they have a true ace that is a shut down pitcher who you can count on to deliver quality. In 2006 Big Z increased his K/9 to 8.83 which is a positive but his increasing walk totals and his decreasing GB/FB ratio is a small cause of concern.

What Not to Like: Signing Jason Marquis to a 3 year $21 million deal. What from his 2006 season was there to like? The answer is nothing, as hitters battered around Marquis to the tune of .289/.364/.509. Marquis was especially charitable with runners on base as he allowed the league to hit .311/.385/.567. Yeah, I would say those numbers are worth $21 million.

Underrated Cub: Matt Murton enjoyed a fairly productive 2006 season. As one of the only Cubs who actually walks (Cubs team OBP of .319 was last in the National League), Murton hit a respectable .297/.365/.444 after a slow first half (.278/.344/.379).

Expectation: As the Cubs spent gobs of money in the off-season, overpaying for Soriano, DeRosa, Floyd and Marquis they will still not see the results they are looking for as they will not have the pitching to survive.


Cincinnati Reds

What to Like: Locking up Aaron Harang to a modest 4 year deal for $36.5 million. Considering people like Jason Marquis and Adam Eaton are stealing $7 million and $8 million per year respectively the Reds deal is a bargain. In 2006 Harang increased his K/9 by nearly 1.5 up to 8.30/9. Harang also doesn’t walk people as he strikes out nearly 4 times as many as he walks. The league slugs a little higher against him that you would like at .433 in 2006 but that can be attributed to pitching in the Great American Small Park as he gave up 20 of his 28 homers there. At worst, Harang will be 32 when the deal is up and the Reds will get his prime years and can count on an above league average starter for over 30 starts per season. It could be a lot worse.

What Not to Like: The rest of the rotation. After Harang and Bronson Arroyo, it is mostly scrap. Kirk Saarloos was picked up from Oakland and should be serviceable which is nice if he is your fifth starter, but when he joins Kyle Lohse, Elizardo Ramirez ,Eric Milton and whatever other journeymen is fighting for a spot to round out the rotation it doesn’t bode well. All those guys are fifth starters if that. So when you have a #2 and a #3 at the front of the rotation followed by spare parts, there figures to be a lot of long nights in Cincinnati.

Underrated Red: The catching tandem of David Ross and Javier Valentin. When you can have two catchers that both slug above .400, and one hit’s LH while the other RH, you got a good thing going (especially with catchers like Brad Ausmus and Yadi Molina getting full time gigs). Now I don’t expect Ross to hit .255/.353/.579 again but for his career he has a .231/.301/.469 line which isn’t too shabby if he is only hitting lefties in which he slugged an absurd .829 in 76 AB’s. Valentin against righties slugged .476 and as long as Jerry Narron doesn’t let him hit from the right side they should be fine as in the last 3 seasons Valentin has hit righties at a .286/.340/.501 clip. As long as the Reds monitor the at bats of both this should be something good. The Reds also get bonus points here for finally dropping the dead weight that is Jason LaRue.

Expectation: As pitching is king, the Reds will probably not hang on the whole season. However, this is a winnable division for nearly everyone in it, so if the Reds can work out the back end of the rotation, they have a chance.


Houston Astros

What to Like: Lance Berkman. As good a hitter as he his, he kind of gets overlooked by the casual baseball observer. Last year Berkman hit .315/.420/.621 with 45 homers and an Iso SLG. of .306. More importantly, Berkman does it on the road as well. In the last three seasons Berkman has hit .303/.417/.578 away from Minute Maid. As a switch hitter, he generates significantly more power from the left side but is able to get on base fairly well still from the right as in the last three seasons Berkman sports a .396 OBP. As long as that continues, he will still be productive from the right side. Berkman is 31 now and should have 2 or 3 more legit years left. For Houston’s sake, let’s hope so as he still has 4 more seasons on the 6-year $85 million deal he signed in 2005.

What Not to Like: The fact that Brad Ausmus is still a full-timer. Shouldn’t we be at the stage where Ausmus is a bench coach being groomed for a manager’s position? I mean how long can you have someone who rakes at a .230/.308/.285 clip play in 139 games? He doesn’t throw out potential base stealers (22% last year) like he used to. Combine him and Adam Everett (.239/.290/.352) and the pitcher at the bottom of the order and you have three automatic outs for the most part. Ausmus needs to be replaced with Humberto Quintero who in AAA last year hit a respectable .298/..352/.425. Now his OBP is tied heavily with his batting average but even when that drops, he will still be more productive than Ausmus can dream of being. Now I know Ausmus calls a good game, but that cannot make up for his inactivity at the plate.

Underrated Astro: Mike Lamb. If the Astros correctly monitor his AB’s and he continues to be a platoon player that only hits lefties, he will continue to produce at the .286/.344/.478 clip that he has produced at the last three seasons in roughly 300 AB’s a year. It is always nice to have that type of power coming off your bench when he can play third and first respectably and give Berkman and Ensberg days off every now and then.

Expectation: Once again, with the division wide open the Astros have an opportunity. However, after Roy Oswalt, Jason Jennings and Woody Williams, there is uncertainty in the rotation. If a combination of Matt Albers, Fernando Nieve, or Chris Sampson can emerge as a quality starter in the 4th and 5th slots, the Astros could be in good shape. However, if they are relying on Wandy Rodriquez then they are in trouble as he is terrible and should not even be considered for the 4th slot. With Brad Lidge hopefully over his control issues, (he still led the league in K/9), the Astros have a solid bullpen with Chad Qualls and Dan Wheeler returning. The lineup should be much better as well with Morgan Ensberg back healthy and with the addition of Carlos Lee albeit an overpaid Carlos Lee. We will have to wait and see on whether the 2007 Astros are good enough for Roger Clemens to want to play for.

Milwaukee Brewers

What to Like: Bill Hall’s improvement. In the last three seasons, Hall’s OBP and SLG have improved and he finished 2006 with a line of .270/.345/.550. He also had an outstanding Iso SLG of .283. Now with Hall moving full-time to center field rather than the rover that he has played for most of his career, he will immediately become one of the better hitting center fielders in the game assuming his numbers stay relatively the same. With a new four year $24 million deal, lets hope that does happen.

What Not to Like: Ben Sheets’ health. The last two seasons Sheets has only pitched 262 innings and he is being paid to pitch 230 innings per season. Armed with one of the best curveballs in the league and a good fastball, Sheets in his last full season in 2004 averaged 10.03 K/9 and walked just 32 in 237 innings. If Sheets remains healthy the entire season he will be poised for a big year and as he is just 28, maybe more years to come. However, when back problems are the issue, they usually never go away completely.

Underrated Brewer: Tony Graffanino. There really aren’t a lot of Brewers that are underrated. They are mostly overrated or not rated at all, but Graffanino is underrated in that he can play multiple positions in the infield, can get on base, and is a passable defender. The last three years Graffanino has put up a .283/.343/.409 line which could be a lot worse. Considering JJ Hardy will eventually get injured this year, Graffanino will be a valuable replacement.

Expectation: The Brewers will most likely finish in the middle of the division because their outfield play is fairly weak with an aged Jenkins, unproven Laynce Nix and Corey Hart, overrated Kevin Mench and their pitching staff even with a healthy Sheets, is not strong. Chris Capuano and Jeff Suppan aren’t enough to get them over the top.

Pittsburgh Pirates

What to Like: Jason Bay. Bay has weathered the losing in Pittsburgh to a tune of .292/.389/.547 the last three seasons. Solid numbers for a guy that knows each spring that his season will be over before the All Star Break. In that same span he has really done it on the road slugging .579 while only slugging .515 at home. Like Brian Giles before him, all his goods years will be behind him when he finally gets released from Bucs Prison.

What Not to Like: The direction of the Pirates front office. They haven’t done a good job of drafting front line players that can help the organization win, and then they waste time by signing older veteran players that will not help the organization win such as Sean Casey and Jeromy Burnitz, yet they get rid of cheap effective players like Craig Wilson. Until their organization has a plan in place, their current state of losing will continue.

Underrated Pirate: Ronny Paulino. This 25-year-old catcher had a solid last season in relative anonymity. He hit a respectable .310/.361/.394 while throwing out 36% of would be base stealers. He had solid minor league numbers as well. His OBP is tied to his batting average pretty heavily but has shown a penchant for taking some walks. Look at it this way: any production he gives will still be better than what the Astros and Cardinals will be getting this year.

Expectation: The Pirates will most likely finish last in the division because of there undecided direction, poor lineup and poor pitching staff.

St. Louis Cardinals

What to Like: Of course Albert Pujols is a thing to like. However, we are going to go with Chris Carpenter. Carp gives the Cardinals an ace that every team is not as fortunate to have. The last three seasons, Carp has averaged a solid 7 K/9 and has struck out batters four times more than he has walked them. In the last three seasons opposing batters have only hit .236/.278/.367 against him as well. Considering he is 31, signing him to a 5 year $65 million deal might not have been the wisest move by the Cardinals, but if they get 3 years of production like the last three, it would have been worth it.

What Not to Like: The corner outfield. Currently, the Cards have Juan Encarnacion, So Taguchi, Chris Duncan, John Rodriguez, and Preston Wilson fighting for the corner outfield positions with Edmonds playing center if he is healthy to start the year. Right now it looks like Duncan could be just a platoon player as he doesn’t hit lefties well (.170/.220/.319) in only 47 AB’s but hasn’t really been given the chance yet. And if anyone watched the 2006 playoffs, he doesn’t really have great instincts or skills for that matter in the outfield. John Rodriguez has been a journeyman outfielder most of his career but has found a nice home in St. Louis where he has shown ability to get on base a little bit. Only playing time will show if he is more than a part-time player. Preston Wilson is on the way out of the game with his strike zone judgment and speed gone. The only thing keeping him around is that people recognize his name and he can still hit lefties a little bit (.292/.362/.496 in 2006). So Taguchi is nothing more than a spare part who use has run its course. The Cardinals are paying Juan Encarnacion $10 million for the next two seasons to not get on base and to not slug (.268/.322/.432 the last three seasons). So if Tony La Russa really is a baseball genius like people think he is, he will find away to platoon the hell out of these guys.

Underrated Cardinal: Dave Duncan. The Cardinals pitching coach has been fairly underrated in his ability to help turnaround fallen pitchers or pitchers found on the scrap heap. He was able to help turn Jason Marquis into an effective pitcher for a couple of years, to help Jeff Weaver turn his season around and pitch the clinching game in the World Series, and help turn Chris Carpenter into one of the best pitchers in the league. Taking pitchers on the cheap and turning them into league average or above league average pitchers is a very valuable commodity. Especially with the rising salaries and overpaying of marginal talent. Duncan also is unique in that he is one of the few pitching coaches that aren’t a former pitcher. Duncan was a catcher.


Expectation: Due to the brilliance of Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter, The Red Birds will contend in this division every year. And if this is a year where Rolen can stay healthy and Jim Edmonds can contribute, this year won’t be any different.