Young Extension a Mistake for Texas

The Texas Rangers recently signed SS Michael Young to a 5 year extension worth ~$80 million. The extension runs from 2009 through the 2013 season (as he was already under contract for $3.5MM this year, with a $5MM club option for 2008).

Forgetting the fact that Rangers had two more seasons to execute this deal (why would you not want observe his age 30 and 31 seasons to watch for regression?), this extension still doesn't make sense. Even more so when considering that several free agent SS (including Renteria and Furcal) hit the market after the 2008 season.

Young's range at SS has never been above average (or even average, really), as shown by John Dewan's range factors. Additionally, he has two offensive indicators that, I think, hint that his range will soon get worse than it already is:

1) His 3B (triples) have dropped off in the past few years (9, 9, 5, 3 in the past four seasons, respectively)
2) His GIDP (grounded into double play) amounts have jumped significantly; 27 in 2006 (T-2nd in all of baseball), 20 in 2005 (T-10th). These are up from 11 (2004), 14 (2003), and 14 (2002).

I realize that different situations throughout a season could skew these numbers, but we're going to assume that opportunities with men on base, etc. are similar from season to season.

In addition, with Young’s .150 career ISO (Isolated Power), keep in mind that he’s never had over a .180 in a single season, once he regresses with age to around a .275 hitter (which will be sooner than later), that leaves him slugging at a .425 clip (and that’s assuming that his power doesn’t diminish as well…which it will). I think that’s fine for a SS position provided that a) the SS plays above average defense (which he doesn’t), and b) the SS is being paid like a league-average SS (which he isn’t).

One good note on this, however, is that the % of his hits that have been singles has dropped over the past four years as follows: 72.5%, 70.4%, 68.8%, and 68.2%, respectively. I note this because singles are the hits that are most likely caused by luck. Although that may be a good trend, I compared these rates to another shortstop: Miguel Tejada (note: Tejada signed a contract prior to the 2004 season for $72MM over 6 years, he will turn 34 in May of 2010). Both are 30 and both have consistently good averages (I say this only because this is the stat that people inevitably point to when arguing for Young being a premier shortstop). Tejada’s % of hits that were singles the past four years are as follows: 61%, 63.5%, 59.3%, and 71.5%. A big jump in that last year for him, but that’s just because he got lucky more in 2006. This proves the point even more: last year when he hit .330, that was Miggys’ highest AVG by ~20 points, but dropping his AVG doesn’t hurt him. That AVG was 13% higher than his career AVG, while his SLG was only 3% higher than his career SLG. Take some lucky singles away from Miggy and he’s fine because they account for ~10% less of his base hits than Young’s do. This power in a SS allows him to move positions as he ages.

Average propped or not, Young has been a useful offensive player the past few seasons (particularly in 2005). However, Young is signed through his age 36 season (and has a no-trade clause), but his bat won’t play at a corner position, and the Rangers will find out in the next few seasons that his glove can’t cut it at SS either.