NL East Preview

Atlanta Braves

The Good: Bullpen. As everyone knows, the Braves revamped bullpen is going to be the strength of this team. Besides the acquisitions of Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano, Blaine Boyer has reportedly regained the velocity on his fastball after season-ending shoulder surgery last year. Several young pitchers, who have another year of experience under their belts, will be counted on to round out the pen.

The Bad: Corner Outfield. In positions that usually demand high offensive output, the Braves are likely to fall short from their right and left fielders. In left field, Ryan Langerhans provides no power (.378 SLG in 2006), while right fielder Jeff Francoeur will likely begin swinging at pickoff throws to first (.293 OBP in 2006, and hasn’t taken a single walk in 56 Spring Training ABs). Matt Diaz will help some in both categories, but it remains to be seen whether or not his 2006 was legit, or just an average-propped anomaly.

The Question: Right Side of the Infield. After non-tendering Marcus Giles and trading Adam LaRoche, the Braves have two inexperienced players at first and second base. After coming back from Tommy John, Kelly Johnson has reportedly made huge strides defensively at second by working with Glenn Hubbard over the offseason, and will provide patience and another left-handed bat at the plate. Scott Thorman will be called on to takeover first, and will try to duplicate the year he was having in Richmond prior to being called up in last season (.296/.360/.508). Adding to first will be Craig Wilson who, if healthy, will provide additional power.


Florida Marlins

The Good: Left Side of the Infield. At SS, 2006 ROY Hanley Ramirez put together a great season after coming over from Boston, posting a .292/.353/.480 line with 46 doubles (look for a few of those to turn into HR in 2007, barring injury). Equally as impressive, 3B Miguel Cabrera hit .311/.384/.535. Both are only 23 years old.

The Bad: Outfield. Other than Josh Willingham, no Marlins outfielder has slugged over .412 in his career (Willingham’s SLG of .482 is in only 550 career ABs). Admittedly, these are very small sample sizes and these players are still young, so there is time to turn around. Alex Sanchez appears to be number one on the depth chart for the CF job. His OBP is usually about 30 points higher that his AVG…the 30 will more than likely hit for a decent average and be a disaster in every other offensive category.

The Question: Age. Florida is the youngest team in baseball by a full year, and no one on their pitching staff is over the age of 28. Although veterans Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis can be counted on, the Marlins still don’t know exactly what they have with much of their roster.


New York Mets:

The Good: Offense. The Mets, on paper, have potentially the best offense in all of the National League. They further upgraded in the offseason by adding 40 year old OF Moises Alou who, despite his age, is still a very productive hitter (.301/.352/.571 in 345 ABs last season). Carlos Delgado and David Wright are going to produce at first and third (both have ISO’s over .200), and Carlos Beltran bounced back nicely from a tough 2005. The biggest jump last season, however, was in Jose Reyes. From ’05 to ’06, Reyes doubled his walk rate and hit 12 more homeruns in 50 fewer ABs. Remember, he’s only 23, so more improvement (especially in walks) is likely.

The Bad: Starting Rotation. After Tom Glavine, the Mets rotation has the potential to be very poor. Orlando Hernandez has been diagnosed with neck arthritis and has only pitched 200 innings once in his career (1999), John Maine gave up 15 HR in only 90 IP (although he did improve on his K/9 IP and K/BB rates), and Oliver Perez has regressed in pretty much every way possible since his 2004 season (although reports are he’s looked good in Spring Training). In addition, Pedro Martinez is attempting return from rotator cuff surgery (second half of the season). Compounding all of this is the age issue. With Glavine (40), Martinez (35), and Hernandez (37), you have to wonder how these three will bounce back from current and potential injuries.

The Question: Right Field. Shawn Green is pretty much a corpse against lefties (.242/.316/.409), and hasn’t slugged over .500 since his 2002 season with LA. The question here will be potential emergence of Lastings Milledge. Milledge, turning 22 in April, has torn through minors and even saw a little time with the big club last season (185 plate appearances). If his improved patience reflected in 2006 at AAA Norfolk carries over into this season, Green could be relegated to PH duty sooner rather than later.


Philadelphia Phillies

The Good: Right Side of the Infield. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard anchor what is probably the best right infield in the National League, if not all of the Majors. Over the past three seasons, Utley has hit .294/.365/.521, even slugging a notable .497 away from the cozy Citizen’s Bank Park. To his left, Ryan Howard is a monster. In 2006, he posted an obscene .346 ISO, and put up an impressive .279/.364/.558 line against left handed pitchers.

The Bad: Catcher. By posting an OPS of .708 in 2006, Rod Barajas gets to join Brian Schneider, Yadier Molina, and Brad Ausmus in the NL’s version of the “Why the hell are you guys starting?” club. Barajas enjoyed an increase in power in 2005 that was reflected in lowering his AB/HR to 19.5, which was far lower than any other time in his career. However, his 2006 line of .256/.298/.410 is remarkably close to his career averages of .240/.282/.410, and likely presents a good idea of what to expect from him in the future.

The Question: Freddy Garcia. It remains to be seen if Garcia can bounce back from a disappointing 2006 season, or if it was a sign of the beginning of his decline. 2006 saw his GB/FB ratio drop to 1.06 (the second lowest of his career), and the league slug a career-high .444 (40 points higher than is career average). Considering that he’ll only be 31 in June and is moving from the AL to the NL, Garcia should give the Phils 200+ solid innings this year.


Washington Nationals

The Good: Corner Infield. 22 year old 3B Ryan Zimmerman had an impressive rookie campaign last season, hitting .287/.357/.479. Even more impressive was the fact that he slugged .516 at pitcher-friendly RFK (vs. .424 on the road). Considering that he totaled 47 doubles in his age 21 season, it’s likely that his HRs will increase from the 20 that he hit last year. Across the diamond, 1B Nick Johnson has a wide array of offensive skills as well. Aside from a strong walk rate (.146 BB/PA), Johnson possesses good power, slugging .520 in 2006 (his first season with over 500 ABs). Therein lies the problem. In five full seasons, Johnson has had a flurry of injuries, including a broken leg when he collided with RF Austin Kearns. He reportedly ran outside last week, but there is no word on when he may return.

The Bad: Pitching. The Nats gave up an NL high 872 runs last season, had the second lowest strike out total, had the highest ERA (5.03), tied for the least number of complete games (1), had the least number of shutouts (3), gave up the second highest OPS against the league (.796)…do I need to go on? They even committed more balks (10) than any other NL team, and they don’t appear to be any better in ’07. Aside from Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch (assuming that is K/9 IP spike last season wasn’t a fluke), this staff is terrible.

The Question: Nationals Stadium. Will it be ready on time? What exactly will it look like? In the nation’s capital, questions regarding the progress of the stadium will likely be the most interesting discussion points surrounding this team.


The East is more than likely going to be a three team race this year, as the Braves, Phillies, and Mets are above the Marlins and light years above the Nationals. Maybe it’s just me wanting a return to normalcy, but I think that Braves will take it by the slimmest of margins. Hudson, by all accounts, has looked great this spring, you know what you’re going to get from Smoltz, and I’m betting that Chuck James will slide by (even with his extreme flyball tendencies) for one more season. With Andruw Jones likely gone, Chipper and Smoltz (if he’s back for another season) growing another year older, and the bulk of Hudson’s back-loaded deal kicking in, 2008 looks to be pretty rough for Atlanta. They’d better take advantage of this season.