National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks

What to Like: Brandon Webb. Last year, this groundball specialist became one of the better pitchers in the National League due to the fact that he was able to lower his walks for the second consecutive year. Couple that with his 4.06 groundball to fly ball ratio and you have a pretty successful pitcher. As long as his defense is solid behind him, Webb should have another successful campaign granted his walks stay around the 50 they have been the last two years and not the 119 he had in 2004.

What Not to Like: Trading for Randy Johnson. It would be one thing to trade for Johnson for one season, but the Diamondbacks extended his contract for another two seasons at $13 million per season. Johnson could still be an effective pitcher after back surgery, but no one is sure. While still striking out over seven batters per nine innings, Johnson gave up 32 and 28 homers the last two seasons which is alarming. Maybe the change to the National League will be good for Johnson, and at $13 million per season, the D-Backs are hoping it will be.

Underrated D-Back: Jeff DaVanon. It is always nice to have a 4th outfielder who can do a little of everything, which DaVanon does. He can get on-base (.371 in 2006), he can slug a little bit (.448 in 2006). Even though he is a switch hitter, the D-Backs would be wise to never let him hit right handed again (.205/.319/.231).

Expectation: With the D-Backs at the beginning of a new era with several young players beginning their major league careers, the future for Arizona is bright. With CF Chris Young, RF Carlos Quentin, 1B Conor Jackson, and SS Stephen Drew all starting for Arizona and outfielders Justin Upton and Carlos Gonzalez to arrive in the coming years, Arizona should be contending for several years to come.


Colorado Rockies

What to Like: Clint Barmes……..no, just kidding. Actually Garrett Atkins is what is to like. When judging Rocky players, the most important numbers are the road and home splits. For Atkins, his numbers were almost identical. On the road Atkins hit .313/.402./.531 with 43 walks and 43 strikeouts while hitting .346/.416/.583 with 36 walks and 33 strikeouts at home. He also hit 15 homers at home and 14 homers on the road. Those are pretty even numbers. If Atkins can duplicate those numbers, Colorado should be pretty well-off at 3B.

What Not to Like: Todd Helton’s contract. In each season through 2010 Helton will make a little over $16 million and then that will jump up to roughly $23 million in the 2011 season. Paying that amount of money to a player who is on the decline could create a lot of problems for the Rockies in the future. That is why they should take the best deal possible and trade him. While Helton was sick during the beginning of the season last year he still dropped to .266/.360/.421 on the road and his home runs have dropped from 32 to 20 to 15 the last three seasons which is a cause for concern. Although Helton was never a pure power hitter, he still had good power. Even though Helton has been the face of the franchise for the majority of his career, the Rockies need to find a taker and move on.

Underrated Rocky: Brian Fuentes. The Rockies closer struck out over 11 batters/9 in 2005 and over 10 batters/9 in 2006. He only allowed the league to hit .209/.301/.372 against him last season. One cause for concern is his increasing fly ball rates, so keep an eye on Fuentes this season.

Expectation: While the Rockies have plenty of talent up and down their lineup, the pitching staff is not enough to keep them in contention.


Los Angeles Dodgers

What to Like: Derek Lowe. Lowe arguably had the best season of his career. He had a starter career best 3.99 GB/FB ratio and only allowed the league to hit .262/.310/.360 off of him and only allowed 14 home runs, half of what he allowed in 2005. Granted, Lowe struggles a bit against lefties (10 of 14 homers allowed to lefties, 41 of 55 BB to lefties), yet he still only allows them to slug .396 against him. However, the Dodgers only signed him to a four year deal for $36 million thru 2008 in which Lowe will be 35 and most likely in steady decline. Kudos to the Dodgers for signing a quality starter for only $9 million per season when the going rate now for a pitcher of his caliber is much, much higher.

What Not to Like: With the Dodgers smartly signing older players like Jeff Kent or Nomar Garciaparra to be a stop gap for a couple of seasons, or signing Jason Schmidt to a 3 year deal when he could have gotten more, it is baffling that the Dodgers signed Juan Pierre to a 5-year $45 million dollar deal. Juan Pierre has one valuable asset: his speed. That also happens to be usually one of the skills that leave a player first. Considering Pierre will be 34 in the last year of the deal, his speed will be gone. Once his speed goes, his defense will follow. The only reason he can play centerfield is because he is fast as he has no arm strength to speak of. As a hitter, Pierre has no power (career .377 SLG) and considering he is being paid $9 million per season, you would like his OBP to be a whole lot higher (.343 OBP the last three seasons). Lastly, he is blocking other younger players from developing such as Matt Kemp. So while LA GM Ned Colletti has made a lot of good decisions this off-season, this one was confusing.

Underrated Dodger: Olmedo Saenz. Saenz is a player that, if used correctly, can be very valuable to a team. In the last three years Saenz has hit .276/.341/.509, but is best used as a platoon player who, if played too much, becomes very average. He is skills are maximized as a guy who only plays against lefties as in the last three seasons he has hit .315/.393/.618 in those cases. As long as the Dodgers use him correctly, he will benefit the club (assuming this isn’t the season where he runs out of gas: Saenz is 36).

Expectation: As long as the Dodgers rotation can hold up, and they don’t let the older players keep down the younger and better players, the Dodgers should contend for the top spot in the West.

San Diego Padres

What to Like: Jake Peavy. Yes, he had a down year last year but all of his vital stats stayed consistent which is why a rebound should be expected. He stayed consistent with 2005 in that he averaged over 9 K/9 and allowed the league to hit .242/.303/.412. This isn’t too bad when you taking into account that lefties slugged at a .457 clip against him which needs to drop for him to be considered an ace. Peavy would benefit some by not trying to strike everyone out. It would help save his arm and make him more effective in the process.

What Not to Like: Brian Giles. Where the heck did his power go? Last here he slugged an anemic .397. Yeah, he is playing in Petco Park but on the road last season he only slugged .410. Yeah, he can still get on base but the Padres cannot compete with a corner outfielder slugging sub .400. One would expect to see his numbers look more like 2005 in which he slugged .410 at home but .545 on the road. If he can’t get back to that, paying $10 million each of the next two seasons is pretty steep for a guy that has no power.

Underrated Padre: Scott Linebrink. This stud set-up man is one of the best in the game. In the last three seasons he has registered 221K's and allowed the league to hit only .223/.281/.346 against him in 233 IP. Relievers that strike people out and don’t walk anyone are a valuable commodity.

Expectation: The Padres will compete only if there outfield can muster any power whatsoever. Which, at this point, doesn’t seem likely.

San Francisco Giants

What to Like: Matt Cain. The young Giants hurler is one player that you can point to and say that he is a potential star. Last year Cain struck out 8.45/9 and allowed the league to hit .222/.310/.371 against him. Right now, he is walking too many guys (87 BB in 190 IP), but that can be attributed to his youth (22 years old). He is one young player to watch on the senior circuit that is the Giants.

What Not to Like: Giving $126 million to Barry Zito. The problem isn’t the length, even though seven years is too many for a pitcher, as Zito has never had arm problems. The problem is paying that much for a pitcher with increasing walk rates, decreasing strikeout rates, and is realistically a good #2 or #3 starter. Now the Giants will be stuck with this contract and forced to sign cheaper, older players (which they already have a habit of doing).

Underrated Giant: Ray Durham. Durham enjoyed the best season of his career at age 35. He hit .293/.360/.538, and while he has always been a good OBP guy, Durham has never slugged like he did in 2006 (belted a career high 26 homers). Even if he doesn’t hit with as much power this year, the Giants can still expect a .350 OBP and .450 SLG which are nice numbers to get from your second sacker.

Expectation: The Giants will be looking up at the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers as both those teams have youth that can play.